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Independently Published

The Expected Goals Philosophy: A Game-Changing Way of Analysing Football

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Format: Paperback


Description

The Expected Goals method is football’s best-kept secret. The metric gives unparalleled insight into which teams and players are performing at the highest level. Professional gamblers have used Expected Goals to make millions through football betting. Club scouts have used Expected Goals to identify hidden gems in the transfer market. And the media have recently started using Expected Goals to offer more profound insight in their broadcasts. Despite this, most ordinary fans still don’t understand what the Expected Goals method is – or appreciate the significant impact that it is set to have on the sport in coming years. Expected Goals (otherwise known as xG) was originally conjured up by a small corner of the online football analytics community. It didn’t take long for professional gamblers to begin using xG to predict match outcomes. These bettors utilised the Expected Goals method to turn over hundreds of millions of pounds from the bookmakers. Before long, football clubs had caught on to the ground-breaking insight given by xG. Brentford FC were leaders in this field; their data-driven approach has led them to a first ever promotion to the Premier League. In the last five years, the small West London side have turned over more than £150m in transfer revenue from their use of the Expected Goals method in player recruitment. More recently, the Expected Goals method has been adopted by the media as a form of insight. Fans are finally catching on to the pioneering means of football analysis. Soon enough, anyone who doesn’t understand the Expected Goals philosophy will be left behind. “This is worth a read for anyone sceptical about xG” – Jamie Carragher “An excellent choice for any level of knowledge and interest on the subject. I cannot recommend it enough” – The Good Gambling Guide “A great read” – David Jones (Sky Sports presenter) Read more

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Independently published (November 8, 2019)


Language ‏ : ‎ English


Paperback ‏ : ‎ 220 pages


ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1089883188


ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 80


Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 2.31 pounds


Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.25 x 0.55 x 8 inches


Best Sellers Rank: #129,068 in Books (See Top 100 in Books) #15 in Sports Gambling (Books) #86 in Soccer (Books)


#15 in Sports Gambling (Books):


#86 in Soccer (Books):


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Top Amazon Reviews

    • Excelenre
Review Image by Excelente calidad Excelente calidad
Sin palabras
Reviewed in the United States on January 9, 2024 by Excelente calidad Excelente calidad
    • Interesting Book on Statistics and European Soccer
I picked up this book out of shear curiosity of xG stats I'd seen on the internet for EPL teams, and having recently watched Moneyball. The book gives a thorough explanation of what the measure is and explores it fairly thoroughly. Although, I do take issue with the author's liberal use of the word "luck" to describe football performances, I'm convinced of the utility of using this important measure when talking about football. I think a lot the author's use of "luck" can be attributed to the inexactness of the xG measurement at this time, and it is something he does talk about but doesn't seem to connect when he does touch on the inexactness in the later chapters. As a former defender, I would've also appreciated a more thorough breakdown of how a statistical approach like this might be useful in showing who the most valuable defenders really are. It seems xG and xA can give you insights into midfielders and forwards, but it seems unclear where defenders lie in this to me. ... show more
Reviewed in the United States on January 27, 2021 by Mitchell Bobbin
    • Great easy read to get familiar with xG
I don't do a ton of reading, but the author's ability to keep my interest caused me to have the book read in a day and a half. It's a very interesting look at football from an analytical perspective without getting a detailed statistics course. If you're looking for a full blown statistics lesson, this probably isn't going to be what you want. ... show more
Reviewed in the United States on September 19, 2021 by Matt
    • xTangents
Yes, Tippett does a good job of explaining expected goals, expected assists, the “justice table,” etc. But, this book could have been a pamphlet. Would have been nice if he could have included how the common punter or fantasy player could best utilize this information to their advantage. After the first half, it’s essentially a skim read. ... show more
Reviewed in the United States on July 26, 2022 by easyfour
    • Great intro and real examples into xG stats
Brand new to the xG stats, but loved the comparison to other sports and the real life statistics of real players. Makes watching football that much more interesting for me. Highly recommend.
Reviewed in the United States on December 31, 2020 by Clayton Hasko
    • Fantastic
All around great book, incredibly well-written and explains the philosophy simply and through the use of examples as well. Would absolutely recommend.
Reviewed in the United States on March 16, 2021 by ANONYMOUS
    • Excellent Overview
A very thorough introduction into the concept of Expected Goals (xG), it’s history, and how it is applied by football clubs. It has become a much more commonplace stat in just the few years since this book was written, so it’s chip-on-the-shoulder attitude about the use of xG seems a little strong, but I suppose the author was proven right by how familiar the stat is now. The book feels a bit stretched out, with a sense that it was a very good presentation padded to try and make it book length. Still, it was presented very well, gives a thorough coverage of the topic, and was an enjoyable read for anyone with an interest in the subject. ... show more
Reviewed in the United States on September 26, 2021 by StratPlayerCJF
    • Worth every penny
Great book and insight into what XG is and how it can be used to change the future of the beautiful game.
Reviewed in the United States on August 28, 2020 by Frazer

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